樱花影视

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Faculty of Graduate Studies

Brendan Danaher

  • BEng (University of Guelph, 2023)

Notice of the Final Oral Examination for the Degree of Master of Applied Science

Topic

Assessing Canada鈥檚 Hydrogen Ambition: Model Development and Policy Analysis with MESSAGEix-Canada

Department of Civil Engineering

Date & location

  • Wednesday, November 12, 2025

  • 9:00 A.M.

  • MacLaurin Building

  • Room D202c

Reviewers

Supervisory Committee

  • Dr. Madeleine McPherson, Department of Civil Engineering, 樱花影视 (Supervisor)

  • Dr. Andrew Rowe, Department of Mechanical Engineering, UVic (Non-Unit Member) 

External Examiner

  • Dr. Jason Lee, Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Washington 

Chair of Oral Examination

  • Dr. Basma Majerbi, School of Business, UVic 

Abstract

Canada's national hydrogen strategy has positioned low-carbon hydrogen as a key pillar in the transition to a net-zero energy future. Energy system modelling is essential for understanding the complex interactions and regional impacts of policy design on the Canadian energy system. This thesis presents both the development of a detailed hydrogen framework within the MESSAGEix Canada energy system model and its application in national hydrogen policy assessment. Notably, this work provides the first evaluation of the Clean Hydrogen Investment Tax Credit, Canada’s dedicated policy for incentivizing clean hydrogen production. Scenarios explore current policy measures, the projected roll-out of major announced hydrogen projects, and net-zero pathways under optimistic and pessimistic cost projections. Findings showcase a gap between federal strategy ambitions and cost-optimal hydrogen deployment: investment tax credits alone are insufficient to scale hydrogen adoption to reach net-zero levels. Hydrogen production is shown to be regionally diverse, with more electrolysis in hydro-rich provinces such as Quebec and more natural gas reforming in fossil-rich regions like Alberta. Industrial applications have the largest uptake of hydrogen, while usage in transportation and synthetic fuels is limited. Lastly, in all scenarios, electrification prevails as the primary energy carrier relative to hydrogen. The results highlight the need for production-based, sector-specific, and regionally differentiated policy to unlock hydrogen’s full decarbonization potential. With MESSAGEix-Canada released as a fully open-source platform, policymakers, stakeholders, and researchers can assess and refine hydrogen strategies in line with evolving technological, economic, and policy conditions.

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