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Topic

Price vs. Policy: The Impact of Cost Uncertainty on Decarbonization Pathways

Department of Civil Engineering

Date & location

• Monday, November 17, 2025

• 9:15 A.M.

• Virtual Defence

Reviewers

Supervisory Committee

• Dr. Madeline McPherson, Department of Civil Engineering, ӣ��Ӱ�� (Supervisor)

• Dr. J. Doyne Farmer, Department of Complexity Economics, University of Oxford, UVic (Non-Unit Member) 

External Examiner

• Dr. Felix Pretis, Department of Economics, ӣ��Ӱ�� 

Chair of Oral Examination

• Dr. Michael McGuire, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, UVic

   

Abstract

This thesis develops a novel linkage between global technology cost forecasts and a national electricity system model to address the uncertainty surrounding the future costs of generation technologies. Incorporating established technologies, as well as emerging technologies such as Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), the research explores how the integration of stochastic price uncertainty into modeling workflows can enhance the robustness of policy design and decision-making. By linking global deployment scenarios to national-level models, this work provides a more accurate understanding of how global cost trends impact national electricity systems. The thesis presents a workflow for incorporating back-tested, data-driven global cost forecasts into country-specific models, focusing on the Canadian electricity system. The study finds that the deployment of CCS and SMRs remains uncertain, although strong policies drive the need for these technologies, regardless of price. This highlights the critical role of robust policy frameworks in enabling their near-term deployment to meet climate goals and challenges narratives that view these unproven technologies as substitutes for policy. This work contributes to the field of energy modeling by advocating for the inclusion of uncertainty ranges in cost forecasts, rather than relying on single-point estimates, to better capture the variability and risks inherent in long-term energy planning. The research lays the groundwork for future studies, offering a methodology that can be applied to other global and national scenarios, and emphasizing the need for continuous updates as technologies evolve. This provides valuable insights for energy modelers and policymakers navigating the complexities of the global energy transition.